Forestry and silviculture

Step 1 — Frame the idea · milestone E0

Establish whether a forestry or non-timber forest product idea deserves further study, given the resource, the applicable legal regime and the reachable market.

What the mission covers

• Framing interview with the promoter: intent, resources already committed, horizon
• Outline reconnaissance of the massif or gathering area: species or products present, accessibility
• Identification of the applicable legal regime and of its real availability
• Identification of blocking dependencies: access roads, labour, permits, seasonality of the resource

Deliverables

• XP-NOVA intent note (1 page)
• Forestry opportunity sheet
• List of apparent dependencies and checks to run

Condition of delivery. No assessment is issued without having identified the legal regime under which the resource could be harvested. A resource with no accessible title is not an opportunity.

Step 2 — Analyse the problem · milestone E0

Measure the resource and pin down the problem the project claims to solve, separating what is inventoried from what is merely stated.

What the mission covers

• Sampling inventory: species or products, density, diameter or maturity classes
• Estimate of standing volume or harvestable stock, and of its increment
• Survey of operators and neighbouring communities: practices, yields, customary use rights
• Identification of pressures and conflicts: clearing, customary rights, protected areas

Deliverables

• Inventory and resource characterisation report
• Estimate of the stock and its increment, with its margin of uncertainty
• Note on identified use rights and conflicts

Condition of delivery. The inventory carries its sampling method and its margin of uncertainty. A volume estimate with no declared sampling rate cannot be used.

Step 3 — Study the market · milestone E1

Establish that the timber or forest product will find a buyer — at what price, in what form and through which channel.

What the mission covers

• Price readings by species, grade and cut, or by product and size
• Mapping of channels: sawmills, local trade, urban markets, export, certification schemes
• Analysis of competition and of imports
• Estimate of reachable demand and of the volumes absorbable per period

Deliverables

• Forestry market study report
• Price grid by species or product, grade and cut
• Positioning note and reachable volumes

Condition of delivery. Prices are collected in the field, dated and located. A price quoted without a place and a date does not enter the study.

Step 4 — Design the offering · milestone E1

Settle what the project sells: species or products, cuts or packaging, grades and target customers.

What the mission covers

• Choice of species or products, and of output grades
• Definition of cuts, packaging and the processing level retained
• Harvest and market-entry calendar, anchored on the seasonality of the resource
• Definition of the traceability and legality requirements applicable to the target market

Deliverables

• Forestry offering definition file
• Product sheets by species or product
• Harvest and market-entry calendar

Condition of delivery. The processing level retained commits both the tool and the processing strand called: it is settled before step 5, never after.

Step 5 — Design the production tool · milestone E2

Define the harvesting tool: division into annual cutting blocks, silvicultural itinerary, access roads, mechanisation and primary processing.

What the mission covers

• Management plan and division into annual blocks, anchored on the actual inventory
• Silvicultural itinerary: regeneration, thinning, rotation
• Sizing of the access network: tracks, landings, watercourse crossings
• Felling, skidding and primary processing equipment
• Capacity plan: standing volume, allowable annual cut, material yield

Deliverables

• Technical specification of the forest operation
• Management plan and map of cutting blocks
• Equipment bill of materials
• Silvicultural itinerary and operating SOPs
• Capacity plan and investment budget (CAPEX)

Condition of delivery. The annual cut never exceeds the measured increment. Without a dated inventory and an enforceable harvesting title the specification is not validated.

Step 6 — Model the finances · milestone E3

Cost the project and test its profitability: investment, operations, cash flow and sensitivity.

What the mission covers

• CAPEX built from the step 5 bill of materials
• OPEX built up: labour, fuel, maintenance, forestry fees and taxes
• Harvest and sales model over the rotation horizon retained
• Profit and loss, cash-flow plan, IRR and payback
• Sensitivity scenarios: price by species, material yield, skidding cost

Deliverables

• Costed financial model (workbook with live formulas)
• Assumptions note, each assumption sourced or declared an estimate
• CAPEX, OPEX, cash-flow and scenario tables

Condition of delivery. The model horizon covers at least one complete silvicultural rotation, or states explicitly that it does not.

Step 7 — Build the business plan · milestone E3

Assemble a file that stands up before a lender: the market, the resource, the tool, the figures, the team and the risks.

What the mission covers

• Drafting the file: market, offering, resource and harvesting tool, organisation, finances
• Risk analysis and mitigation plan, legal and social risks included
• Presentation of the team and of the skills mobilised
• Formatting to the expectations of the target lending window

Deliverables

• Complete forestry business plan
• Executive summary
• Technical, legal and financial annexes

Condition of delivery. The business plan carries over the figures of the step 6 model without retouching them. Any gap between the two documents is an error, never a presentational judgement call.

Step 8 — Close the financing · milestone E3

Carry the file through to disbursement: choice of lending windows, filing, appraisal, negotiation and deeds.

What the mission covers

• Selection of lending windows and adaptation of the file to each
• Filing, follow-up of the appraisal and answers to the credit committee
• Negotiation of terms and security
• Legal review of the deeds and support to signature

Deliverables

• Filed applications and appraisal log
• Comparison note of the financing offers
• Legal review of deeds and conditions precedent

Condition of delivery. XP-NOVA is not a financial agent: it prepares, defends and documents; it does not bind the promoter and takes no commission from any lender.

Step 9 — Build and accept · milestone E4

Have the access network and operating facilities built and accepted, through to fitness to open the first cutting block.

What the mission covers

• Contractor consultation and bid analysis
• Execution follow-up: tracks, crossings, landings and storage areas
• Acceptance of felling, skidding and primary processing equipment
• Check of the works against the environmental prescriptions
• Clearing of reservations and assembly of the as-built file

Deliverables

• Tender file and bid analysis report
• Site reports and acceptance minutes
• As-built file
• Certificate of fitness to open the first block

Condition of delivery. The access network is accepted before any block is opened. A block opened without an accepted track exposes both the site and the promoter.

Step 10 — Operate · milestone E5

Bring the operation up to regime: cutting and regeneration procedures, resource monitoring and steering by indicators.

What the mission covers

• Drafting the procedures: marking, felling, skidding, grading, evacuation
• Regeneration protocol and monitoring of stand reconstitution
• Dashboard: harvested volumes, material yield, reconstitution rate
• Team training and support through the first block

Deliverables

• Set of forestry SOPs
• Regeneration protocol and operating register
• Operating dashboard
• First-block support report

Condition of delivery. The operating register is kept stem by stem. A volume declared without a register is not enforceable — neither against the administration nor before a buyer demanding traceability.

Step 11 — Prepare market entry · milestone E6

Prepare market entry: channels, prices, logistics and a legality argument.

What the mission covers

• Choice of channels and sizing of the evacuation logistics
• Pricing policy by species or product, grade and cut
• Building the sales argument, including traceability and legality of origin
• Prospecting plan for sawmills, traders and export buyers

Deliverables

• Forestry market-entry plan
• Price grid and terms of sale
• Sales materials and traceability file

Condition of delivery. The legality argument rests on the operating register and the titles, never on a statement by the promoter.

Step 12 — Sell · milestone E6

Turn the plan into first orders: prospecting, negotiation and contracting.

What the mission covers

• Prospecting the identified customers and securing meetings
• Negotiation of volumes, prices and delivery terms
• Drafting and legal securing of framework contracts
• Setting up order tracking

Deliverables

• Portfolio of qualified prospects
• Signed framework contracts or written commitments
• Order tracking tool

Condition of delivery. A verbal commitment is not an order. Only written commitments enter the portfolio.

Step 13 — Collect and hold · milestone E6

Get the money in: delivery execution, invoicing, collection and margin steering.

What the mission covers

• Follow-up of delivery execution and batch conformity
• Invoicing, collection follow-up and forestry fees due
• Analysis of the gap between planned and realised margin
• Adjustment of pricing policy and channels

Deliverables

• Sales and collection dashboard
• Margin variance analysis
• Commercial adjustment note

Condition of delivery. Margin is measured after collection and after settlement of the forestry fees, never at invoicing.